Monday, March 2, 2009

Why Hedge Foreign Currency Risk

International commerce has rapidly increased as the internet has provided a new and more transparent marketplace for individuals and entities alike to conduct international business and trading activities. Significant changes in the international economic and political landscape have led to uncertainty regarding the direction of foreign exchange rates. This uncertainty leads to volatility and the need for an effective vehicle to hedge foreign exchange rate risk and/or interest rate changes while, at the same time, effectively ensuring a future financial position.

Each entity and/or individual that has exposure to foreign exchange rate risk will have specific foreign exchange hedging needs and this website can not possibly cover every existing foreign exchange hedging situation. Therefore, we will cover the more common reasons that a foreign exchange hedge is placed and show you how to properly hedge foreign exchange rate risk.

Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposure - Foreign exchange rate risk exposure is common to virtually all who conduct international business and/or trading. Buying and/or selling of goods or services denominated in foreign currencies can immediately expose you to foreign exchange rate risk. If a firm price is quoted ahead of time for a contract using a foreign exchange rate that is deemed appropriate at the time the quote is given, the foreign exchange rate quote may not necessarily be appropriate at the time of the actual agreement or performance of the contract. Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.

Interest Rate Risk Exposure - Interest rate exposure refers to the interest rate differential between the two countries' currencies in a foreign exchange contract. The interest rate differential is also roughly equal to the "carry" cost paid to hedge a forward or futures contract. As a side note, arbitragers are investors that take advantage when interest rate differentials between the foreign exchange spot rate and either the forward or futures contract are either to high or too low. In simplest terms, an arbitrager may sell when the carry cost he or she can collect is at a premium to the actual carry cost of the contract sold. Conversely, an arbitrager may buy when the carry cost he or she may pay is less than the actual carry cost of the contract bought. Either way, the arbitrager is looking to profit from a small price discrepancy due to interest rate differentials.

Foreign Investment / Stock Exposure - Foreign investing is considered by many investors as a way to either diversify an investment portfolio or seek a larger return on investment(s) in an economy believed to be growing at a faster pace than investment(s) in the respective domestic economy. Investing in foreign stocks automatically exposes the investor to foreign exchange rate risk and speculative risk. For example, an investor buys a particular amount of foreign currency (in exchange for domestic currency) in order to purchase shares of a foreign stock. The investor is now automatically exposed to two separate risks. First, the stock price may go either up or down and the investor is exposed to the speculative stock price risk. Second, the investor is exposed to foreign exchange rate risk because the foreign exchange rate may either appreciate or depreciate from the time the investor first purchased the foreign stock and the time the investor decides to exit the position and repatriates the currency (exchanges the foreign currency back to domestic currency). Therefore, even if a speculative profit is achieved because the foreign stock price rose, the investor could actually net lose money if devaluation of the foreign currency occurred while the investor was holding the foreign stock (and the devaluation amount was greater than the speculative profit). Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.

Hedging Speculative Positions - Foreign currency traders utilize foreign exchange hedging to protect open positions against adverse moves in foreign exchange rates, and placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage foreign exchange rate risk. Speculative positions can be hedged via a number of foreign exchange hedging vehicles that can be used either alone or in combination to create entirely new foreign exchange hedging strategies.

Forex Swing Trading with Elliott Wave

When evaluating the forex market for swing trade opportunities the focus is placed on predicting directional changes or continuations for a given currency pair. For this we rely on technical analysis.

In technical analysis, just as in fundamental analysis, there are lagging indicators and leading indicators. One of the most reliable tools used to predict forex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis. Elliott Wave analysis can be used to identify trends and countertrends, trend continuation or exhaustion and to evaluate the potential price targets of a trend.

You can apply Elliott Wave analysis to both long and short position swing trade set ups for your currency pairs.

Elliott Wave theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, who concluded that the markets moved in a repetitive pattern of waves. He attributed this action to the mass psychology of the market.

Elliott concluded that the market¡¯s movement was a direct result of the mass psychology of the time and that the stock market is a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similar in shape, but at different scales. A great example of a fractal in nature is a stalk of broccoli. The stalk and the individual branches look exactly the same; just the branches are smaller in scale.

Fractals just happen to form in accordance with Fibonacci ratios. Is this a coincidence?

Elliott attributes this mass psychological move to the human trait of herding. Even though Elliott¡¯s theories were based on stock market price movements, it has been applied to evaluating Presidential approval ratings and fashion trends changes as well.

The conclusion, the market price actions are not the cause of economic growth or slow down, but the reflection of the mass psychology of investors. If the mood of the investing public is upbeat then a bull market ensues. This is counter to what most individual perceive, that because there is a bull market the mood of the investing public is upbeat.

Elliott Wave patterns follow a sequence that the markets move up in a series of 3 waves and down in a series of 2 waves. This 3 wave impulse and 2 wave corrective sequence form the foundation of the 5 Wave impulse pattern (the opposite is true in a downtrend).

The Elliott Wave Counts are as follows;

Wave 1 - Short Covering
Wave 2 - Pullback from Short Covering
Wave 3 - Major Rally Phase
Wave 4 - Institution Pause in the Rally
Wave 5 - Retail Buying

Wave 1 is usually the weakest of the impulse waves. It is a brief rally based on short covering of the bears from a previous move down. When Wave 1 is complete, the currency pair sells off, creating Wave 2.

Wave 2 ends when the market fails to make new lows. You often see dominant reversals patterns form at the end of this wave signaling the being of the rally phase or Wave 3.

Wave 3 is the longest and strongest of the impulse waves. This signals strong currency buying or selling in the direction of the trend. This trend usually starts of slowly, but tends to accelerate as it breaks to new highs above the top of Wave 1.

Like any trend, especially a strong trend a correction will occur. Traders will begin to take profits and the currency pair will retrace. This signals the beginning of Wave 4.

Again the currency pair will rally ushering in the Wave 5 rally. Wave 5 is typically supported by the retail traders and not institutional buyers (the herd) and tends to lack the momentum generated in the Wave 3 rally. This creates divergence that can be easily measured on any technical oscillator. After the currency pair breaks to new highs above the previous Wave 3 high, the rally loses steam and changes trend.

This trend change can result in either a new 5 Wave impulse pattern or a corrective in nature.

Now that we know what the Elliott Wave analysis is, how would a currency trade using this analysis look like, just as an example?

Look to Wave 5 as the most reliably tradable impulse wave. The trade sets up as follows. Look for the Elliott Oscillator to pull back between 90% and 140% of the Wave 3 high on a daily chart. This pullback should correspond to a 38%-62% Fibonacci retracement from the Wave 2 extension. This signal is the strongest when the Fibonacci retracement is between 38% - 50%.

Like any technical analysis tool you never want to employ an indicator as a stand alone analysis tool. A trigger and a confirming indicator are required as well.

Look for a trigger in candle patterns, such as Harami, Tweezers or Harami cross. There are a variety of software packages on the market that perform Elliott Wave counts and have other entry signal indicators as well.

Draw a regression channel on the Wave 4 retracement and look for a break above or below the channel as confirmation to enter the trade.

Place stops at the high of the Wave 1 advance, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement level or where your individual trading plan dictates. Trail your stops once the currency pair has advanced past the Wave 3 high. Look for reversal candle patterns like doji, hammers, shooting stars or hanging mans for signals that the wave is about to end or stall. A typical price target is 127% retracement of the Wave 4 low.

This is just a glimpse of how Elliott Wave analysis can be deployed to enhance your forex swing trade evaluations. Look more into the Elliott Wave theory and other strategies as tools for increasing your forex swing trade opportunities.

Timing is Everything With Forex Trading

The most challenging part of getting started with Forex trading is to learn this innovative way of trading. Many potential investors that try to navigate the Forex system unaided end up being frustrated and financially intimidated. There are very simple strategies to becoming successful using the foreign exchange trading system but the first step is gathering all of the necessary information surrounding this type of trading specialty. Securing a reliable Forex trading broker is likely the first and most pivotal step after learning the initial principles.

Unlike many types of trading and futures, foreign exchange trading is not designed to make the client rich quickly. Many people are frightened off by the word that Forex trading is a get rich quick scheme that in large part, doesn't work. This is a financial myth despite all the hype surrounding the foreign exchange trading system. There are steps and gains to be taken in order to secure a future in successful trading. Expect to dedicate a large portion of time to researching and understanding the market in general before setting out with your pocket book ready to invest. Learn all you can about the Forex market in the beginning in order to make the Forex trading path a smooth and triumphant one.

There is no doubt that there are numerous types of orders that can be utilized in order to open and close trades and becoming familiar with them is a must. In the foreign exchange trading business there are charts, graphs and other visuals to help you effectively analyze trends in currency trading. These charts and graphs will assist in making well-informed decisions on what currency to sell. Timing is everything and it goes without saying that when experiencing with the Forex trading system, knowing when to trade can be the pivotal difference between success and failure. Understanding the analysis tools and how to use them efficiently will put any investor on the right track.

As well as proficient trading tools, it is an absolute necessity when using the foreign exchange trading system to understand how to use the software to perform actual trades. The only way to become comfortable with using Forex trading software is to use it and learn how to plot a course through the process. Selecting a good trader is the most imperative tip at this stage because an established trader can help you with the services required as well as giving you in depth tutorials using the foreign exchange trading system.

The most critical tool that will be utilized in the Forex trading system is patience and discipline. As mentioned earlier, foreign exchange trading is not a get rich quick proposal so learning patience and discipline can help you to become profitable in a timely fashion without losing money. Most brokers offer a demo account that can be used to practice and learn the foreign exchange trading system that mimics the real account with the exception of real money being traded. This gives a client insight into the market and its behaviors before actual money is invested. Learn how to make a profit using paper trading on a regular basis before risking your capital with Forex trading.

Currency Trading Training - 7 Favorite Tips

Currency trading training is not over when a trader finally sees the equity increasing in their account.

The Forex market is a very demanding environment and for a trader to maintain a success level, constant currency trading training is necessary.

The following 7 favorite tips can be used as timely reminders and need to be read and absorbed on a regular basis:

#1 - Take Responsibility

"The buck stops here." Don't blame the markets, or a host of other factors for a losing trade. You entered it for whatever reasons you had at the time. Take responsibility for it.

#2 - Use Each Losing Trade As A Stepping Stone

You lost a trade? Good. It will help you focus on a potential problem in your trading method. If after careful analysis you are satisfied you worked according to your plan, fine. Move on.

#3 - Never Become Impatient With The Market

New traders in the early stages of their currency trading training can be eaten alive by the market. During periods of consolidation with little liquidity the anxious impatient trader will force trading opportunities where there none.

Learn to accept the fact that around 70% of the time price will be in a consolidation channel.

#4 - Focus Daily On Improving Your Trading Skills

Currency trading training is an ongoing process. Day by day, step by step the trader improves. So rather than be preoccupied with profits and losses, concentrate on developing the skills. Your account will start to reflect your focus in time.

#5 - Be Pleased With Well Executed Trades Whatever The Outcome

Is this possible? Yes. You can feel well pleased even with a losing trade if you stuck to your methodology and executed the trade well. It is dangerous to feel good about a winning trade when you went against your trading method to achieve it. Your elation is likely to be short lived. Learn to execute the plan!

#6 - If In Doubt Stay Out

The feeling of regret can drain a person mentally and emotionally from entering a poorly considered trade. Once the trigger has been pulled and the trade starts going wrong, the agony of watching it inch towards your stop should renew in the trader the determination to stay out when in doubt!

#7 - Always Have A Good Reason

Currency trading training involves careful analysis of reasons for entering a trade. Just because price is high is not a reason to go short or long if price is low. Price will do what price wants to do so rather than trading from gut reaction, e.g. "Price can't go any higher (or lower)" learn to detach emotions and use pure technical analysis to establish a number of reasons why you should take a trade.

As currency trading training is a long term commitment, skills and disciplines learned can sometimes be forgotten as bad habits creep in.

It is necessary to constantly renew the thinking processes by repeating over and over the habits of successful traders.

These 7 favorite tips will keep the newer trader out of a lot of trouble!

Online Currency Trading Tutorials

Whether are learning to drive a car or trade in the Forex market you benefit from the experience and knowledge of others. None of us ever really believe that we are an expert at something as soon as we try it for the first time. For this reason, unless you are already maintaining a healthy bank balance trading Forex then you can benefit from a tutorial in Forex trading.

A tutorial in currency trading will help to teach you the basics, and even if you have been trading currencies for a while then you may still learn something new. You see, the Forex market is pretty complex and therefore it can take years to master it. For this reason taking the time to learn as much as possible will save you money in the long run.

Not too long ago it was almost impossible to find anyone offering any kind of training or tutoring in Forex. This was mainly because trading was only open to large corporations and businesses. The situation is completely different nowadays as the Internet boom has opened the doors to individual traders and that has led to a massive increase in the number of courses and tutorials available.

Training can be done online or in a classroom depending on your location and preference. There are so many ¡®learn at home¡¯ courses available now that if you think that is the way to go then all you have to do is pick one. Classroom learning is a little different since you may find yourself having to travel fair distances to get to your nearest course.

Another advantage of an online tutorial is that not only do you get to learn from the comfort of your own home or office but you can also take things at your own pace. The downside however is that there is no teacher for the one to one discussions and explanation (the DVDs or online videos are your teacher) that you may sometime need.

Some online currency trading tutorials come with a money-back guarantee, that is if you do not like their course you can return it for a refund. However, you should look out for those courses which claim to be able to guarantee you a profit. These kind of claims are hard to achieve and should be treated with sketiscm as some courses are no more than scams.

Forex trading requires very quick thinking and decision making. Tutorials cannot teach you that. They can tell you the principles of trading and make you a much better trader for it. However, what it takes is for you to use the knowledge they give you and incorporate it in to your daily trading habits.

Through the help of a course you decision making and speed can definitely be improved but they cannot tell you exactly when to enter or exit a trade. That said, if you take the time to learn everything you can then it will be much easier to call the next market move correctly. You can also look to the help of Forex signal service providers for further security.

Currency trading tutorials can never teach you everything you will ever need to know. No-one can. However, they can help you to make decisions more quickly and with more success, it¡¯s all about how you take the knowledge they give you and what you do with it.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Calculating Pip Values

Perhaps the first question we need to ask is what does pip mean in forex trading? A pip is the smallest movement that is possible in the price of one currency against another and it is vital to be able to calculate pip values quickly and easily as it is the movement in prices which results in your profit or loss when trading.

A pip is normally, but not always, 0.0001 or 0.01%. In other words, if a currency moves from a price of 1.7650 to 1.7655 it is said to move 5 pips.

The easiest way to understand how to calculate pip values is to start by considering currency pairs which involve the US Dollar and we start by considering the situation when the US Dollar is the quote currency as in the case of JPY/USD, GBP/USD or CHF/USD.

Here calculating a pip value is very easy as a pip will always have a value of $10. So, if while trading JPY/USD the market moves in your favor by 10 pips you will make a profit of $100. Let's see how this works.

Consider a quote of GBP/USD is 1.9730. This means that 1 UK Pound is worth 1.9730 US Dollars. A standard InterBank lot size is 100,000 and which means that 100,000 UK Pounds are worth 197,300 US Dollars. If the market moves 1 pip so that GBP/USD is 1.9731 then 100,000 UK Pounds will now be worth 197,310 US Dollars - a rise of $10.

Now let's turn our attention to what happens when the US Dollar is the base currency and consider a quote of USD/GBP = 0.6439. Here 1 US Dollar is worth 0.6439 UK Pounds and 100,000 US Dollars are worth 64,390 UK Pounds.

If the price moves up 1 pip then USD/GBP = 0.6440 and 1 US Dollar is worth 0.6440 UK Pounds and 100,000 US Dollars is worth 64,400 UK Pounds.

In this case a movement of 1 pip represents a value of 10 UK Pounds which, in US Dollars, gives a pip value of 15.53 US Dollars (10 ÷ 0.6440).

For a standard trading lot with the US Dollar as the quote or counter currency a pip has a value of $10 but, when the US Dollar is the base currency, the pip value will vary with the market price.

5 Reasons For Becoming A World Currency Trader

The foreign currency exchange market offers today's investor many advantages and here are just reasons why you might want to become a world currency trader.

A Market Which Never Closes

Many of the trading markets around the world are situated in fixed locations and operate within strict trading hours, often limited to just five or six hours a day between Monday and Friday. The Forex market however is open 24 hours a day.

This means that traders can not only take advantage of international events and react literally as they happen, but they also have the ability set their own trading hours. If you prefer to work in the mornings then that's fine but, if this doesn't suit you, then you can choose to trade during the afternoon, late evening or even in the middle of the night if you want to.

Low Trading Costs

In many markets, like the equity market, traders not only have to pay a spread (the difference in price between buying and selling a stock) but also have to pay a commission to the broker. On small trades this commission can typically be about $20 and this can rise rapidly to over $100 for larger trades.

Because the foreign currency exchange market is a wholly electronic market many of the traditional trading costs are eliminated and you are in affect reduced to paying nothing more than the spread. In addition, the extremely liquid nature of the global currency exchange market means that spreads are normally much tighter than those seen in other markets.

The Ability To Trade On High Leverage

In most markets where a trader has an opportunity to trade on leverage the leverage offered is often quite low. In the case of equity markets, for example, professional equity day traders will normally operate on a leverage of about ten times their capital. In the Forex market by contrast it is quite common to find that traders are permitted to trade at one hundred to two hundred times their capital.

A downside of high leverage is that it can of course lead to high losses as well as high gains. However, within the foreign currency market, risk management is extremely tightly controlled.

Limited Slippage

In currency trading trades are executed immediately using real-time prices at which firms will buy or sell the currencies quoted. In almost all cases this means that the price you see and the price you pay are the same.

This is not often the case in other markets where there can be often considerable delays between placing an order and that order being executed during which time the price will often move against you.

The Chance To Profit In Both Rising And Falling Markets.

Equity markets follow rising and falling trends (cycling between Bull and Bear markets), but the Forex market does not suffer this cycling which comes from structural bias in the market.

World currency trading always involves two currencies so that if you are down on one currency then you are up on the other. There is therefore always the potential for making a profit whether the market is rising or falling.

Google Page Rank Button